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Assessing the Impacts of Future Global Air Pollution Scenarios: Implications for HTAP2, AMAP, and Global IAMs

February 17-19 2016, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany

Meeting Agenda

Draft Agenda

(Updated 02-11-16)
Wednesday, 17 February - HTAP and AMAP: Impacts in the Arctic
The sessions on this day will focus on discussing what has been learned about air pollution impacts in the Arctic from recent work under TF HTAP and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) and what questions TF HTAP and AMAP may work together to address in the future.
Introduction and Welcome Tim Butler
EMEP/AMAP Cooperation (Report out from 16 Feb Meeting) Laurence Rouil
TF HTAP Overview Frank Dentener, Terry Keating
AMAP Overview Simon Wilson
Pollution in the Arctic: Climate, Environment and Societies (PACES) Overview Kathy Law
Break
Atmospheric Modeling
AMAP Expert Group Modeling Terje Berntsen, Michael Gauss
HTAP2 Models for the Arctic Steve Arnold
GMOS: Multi-model assessment of mercury pollution and processes Oleg Travnikov
POPs Matt MacLeod
Discussion  
  • What are the most important policy-relevant science questions to address with respect to atmospheric modeling of air pollution due to sources inside and outside the Arctic?
  • Are there additional relevant activities (completed, ongoing, or planned) that should be considered as we assess future opportunities?
  • What questions can be addressed in the short term (i.e., what analysis can be completed by Dec 2016 for inclusion in the ACP special issue)?
  • What questions can be addressed over the next 2-3 years?
  • What opportunities are there to build upon past and ongoing work within TF HTAP and AMAP to address new questions?
  • What are the critical steps necessary to advance this work in the short (2016) and longer terms (2017-2018)?
 
Lunch
Emissions and Scenarios
Future Global Scenarios Zig Klimont
Arctic Emissions and Scenarios Kaarle Kupiainen
Black Carbon Emissions in Russia Joshua Fu
Discussion  
  • What are the most important uncertainties with respect to current and future air pollution emissions within and near the Arctic?
  • What policies or development scenarios should be investigated?
  • Are there additional relevant activities (completed, ongoing, or planned) that should be considered as we assess future opportunities?
  • What questions can be addressed in the short term (i.e., what analysis can be completed by Dec 2016 for inclusion in the ACP special issue)?
  • What questions can be addressed over the next 2-3 years?
  • What opportunities are there to build upon past and ongoing work within TF HTAP and AMAP to address new questions?
  • What are the critical steps necessary to advance this work in the short (2016) and longer terms (2017-2018)?
 
Break
Impacts Assessment
WGE Overview Peringe Grennfelt
Overview of Health Impact Assessment Efforts Rita Van Dingenen
Critical Loads and their Exceedances in the Northern Hemisphere Max Posch
Discussion  
  • What are the most important impact endpoints to focus on with respect to Arctic inhabitants, ecosystems, and climate?
  • Are there challenges for impact assessment that are specific to the Arctic, as compared to other regions of the world?
  • Are there additional relevant activities (completed, ongoing, or planned) that should be considered as we assess future opportunities?
  • What questions can be addressed in the short term (i.e., what analysis can be completed by Dec 2016 for inclusion in the ACP special issue)?
  • What questions can be addressed over the next 2-3 years?
  • What opportunities are there to build upon past and ongoing work within TF HTAP and AMAP to address new questions?
  • What are the critical steps necessary to advance this work in the short (2016) and longer terms (2017-2018)?
 
Next Steps on Arctic Issues  
Adjourn for the Day
Thursday, 18 February - Impact Assessment in HTAP2 and Global IAMs
The sessions on this day will focus on efforts to assess the health, ecosystem, and climate impacts of air pollution under HTAP2 and other collaborative efforts, including the global integrated assessment modeling activities informing IPCC. The discussions will seek to identify questions that can be addressed within the next year (for purposes of HTAP2) and over the next several years.
Re-Cap and Expectations  
Status of HTAP2 and Related Atmospheric Modeling Efforts
HTAP2 Archive Status and European Multimodel Results Michael Schulz
HTAP2 S/R Relationships Oliver Wild
AQMEII Stefano Galmarini
MICS-Asia Joshua Fu
Break
CCMI Jean-Francois Lamarque
AerChemMIP and HTAP2 Climate Impacts Bill Collins
Impact of Aviation Emissions on Atmospheric Composition and Climate Joanna Struzewska
Discussion  
  • What are the most important policy-relevant science questions or insights from HTAP2 simulations and other recent efforts to model air pollution at the global to regional scale?
  • Are there additional relevant activities (completed, ongoing, or planned) that should be considered as we assess future opportunities?
  • What questions can be addressed in the short term (i.e., what analysis can be completed by Dec 2016 for inclusion in the ACP special issue)?
  • What questions can be addressed over the next 2-3 years?
  • What opportunities are there to build upon past and ongoing work within TF HTAP and AMAP to address new questions?
  • What are the critical steps necessary to advance this work in the short (2016) and longer terms (2017-2018)?
 
Lunch
Integrated Assessment Models and Decision Support Tools
ISI-MIP Overview Lila Warszawski
GAINS Overview Markus Amann
FASST Overview Rita Van Dingenen
BenMAP and CCAC Screening Tool Amy Lamson
Climate/Air Quality/Health Co-Benefits Analysis Noelle Selin
Discussion  
  • What are the biggest deficiencies in our ability to represent air pollution sources and their health, ecosystem, and climate impacts at the global and regional scale in integrated assessment models and decision support tools?
  • Are there additional relevant activities (completed, ongoing, or planned) that should be considered as we assess future opportunities?
  • What opportunities exist for the work of HTAP2 and other recent air pollution modeling efforts to inform future integrated assessment modeling efforts?
 
Break
Health Impacts of Air Pollution
HTAP2 Health Impacts Jason West
Health Impacts in UK Ruth Doherty
Impacts of Long and Short Term Exposures: Results of the ACCEPTED Project Hans Orru
Discussion  
  • Given the scope of impacts considered and methods employed in current IAMs and in HTAP2, what improvements are most needed to improve estimation of air pollution health impacts on the global and regional scale?
  • Are there additional relevant activities (completed, ongoing, or planned) that should be considered as we assess future opportunities?
  • What questions can be addressed in the short term (i.e., what analysis can be completed by Dec 2016 for inclusion in the ACP special issue)?
  • What questions can be addressed over the next 2-3 years?
  • What are the critical steps necessary to advance this work in the short (2016) and longer terms (2017-2018)?
 
Adjourn for the Day
Friday, 19 February - Progress Towards Decision Support
The sessions on this day will focus on how to make the outputs of HTAP2 and related efforts as useful as possible to policy makers. The discussions will include clarifying plans for articles for the special issue of Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics.
Re-Cap and Expectations  
Ecosystem Impacts of Air Pollution
Vegetation Impacts from Air Pollution - How effective are different emission mitigation policies? Lisa Emberson
Ozone Vegetation Flux Modeling Gina Mills
AgMIP Ozone Frank Dentener
Modelling ozone impacts on global crop production with LPJmL Bernhard Schauberger
Discussion  
  • Given the scope of impacts considered and methods employed in current IAMs and in HTAP2, what improvements are most needed to improve estimation of ecosystem impacts of air pollution on the global and regional scale?
  • Are there additional relevant activities (completed, ongoing, or planned) that should be considered as we assess future opportunities?
  • What questions can be addressed in the short term (i.e., what analysis can be completed by Dec 2016 for inclusion in the ACP special issue)?
  • What questions can be addressed over the next 2-3 years?
  • What are the critical steps necessary to advance this work in the short (2016) and longer terms (2017-2018)?
 
Break
Consideration of Alternative Policy Scenarios and Costs
Air pollution storylines for SSPs Shilpa Rao
SMART project (Sustainable Modes of Arctic Resource-driven Transformation) Carolina Cavazos Guerra
Discussion  
  • Are there additional relevant activities (completed, ongoing, or planned) that should be considered as we assess future opportunities?
  • Given the air pollution emissions scenarios that have been developed, what additional scenarios or specific policies should be assessed?
  • How might the effectiveness of mitigation policies differ in different regions of the world and how might the results of HTAP2 and other information be used to characterize those differences?
  • What questions can be addressed in the short term (i.e., what analysis can be completed by Dec 2016 for inclusion in the ACP special issue)?
  • What questions can be addressed over the next 2-3 years?
  • What are the critical steps necessary to advance this work in the short (2016) and longer terms (2017-2018)?
 
Lunch
Uncertainty Estimation (S/R Methods Comparison, Performance Evaluation, …)
EuroDelta Results Katie Mar

Western NA Performance Evaluation

Owen Cooper
Status Report from CU Boulder Daven Henze
Discussion  
  • How can insights from current global and regional model evaluation efforts be used to characterize (qualitatively or quantitatively) our level of confidence in the information (e.g. source/receptor relationships) carried into integrated assessment and impact assessment modeling?
  • Are there additional relevant activities (completed, ongoing, or planned) that should be considered as we assess future opportunities?
  • How does the uncertainty in the atmospheric modeling results compare to the uncertainty in other information included in impact and integrated assessment?
  • What methods, tools, or analyses could be used practically to improve the characterization of uncertainty in assessments of air pollution and its impacts?
  • What questions can be addressed in the short term (i.e., what analysis can be completed by Dec 2016 for inclusion in the ACP special issue)?
  • What questions can be addressed over the next 2-3 years?
  • What are the critical steps necessary to advance this work in the short (2016) and longer terms (2017-2018)?
 
Break  
Future Challenges and Opportunities for TF HTAP and the International Framework
What are the key topics that can be addressed in the ACP special issue and what are the critical steps to completing analyses on these topics by December 2016?  
What are the most important longer term research questions and opportunities to improve air pollution impact assessment at the global and regional scale that should guide efforts by TF HTAP and others over the next several years?  
What opportunities exist for TF HTAP to contribute to the work of other cooperative scientific efforts and international policy forums based on recent results or through future efforts building upon recent efforts?  
Adjourn Meeting